World War III in 2023

Luis Martínez-Fernández
Fri, 24 Feb 2023 21:00:00 -0800
Opinion

It's any given morning on any given week in 2023. Millions of Americans wake up without internet: no access to email, Facebook or online news. Foreign hackers have breached the security of energy and transportation grids and corporate and government computers, affecting everything from traffic lights to air travel to bank ATMs. American quotidian life, as we know it, has been paralyzed by cyberwarriors from any number of hostile nations.

The national Emergency Alert System warns the public of widespread cyberattacks. Later in the day, President Joe Biden addresses the nation. He assures the citizenry and outlines immediate retaliatory actions.

That may very well be our "Pearl Harbor," a wave of cyber-aggressions that catapult America and the world into a third world war.
Updated: Sat Feb 25, 2023

It's any given morning on any given week in 2023. Millions of Americans wake up without internet: no access to email, Facebook or online news. Foreign hackers have breached the security of energy and transportation grids and corporate and government computers, affecting everything from traffic lights to air travel to bank ATMs. American quotidian life, as we know it, has been paralyzed by cyberwarriors from any number of hostile nations.

The national Emergency Alert System warns the public of widespread cyberattacks. Later in the day, President Joe Biden addresses the nation. He assures the citizenry and outlines immediate retaliatory actions.

That may very well be our "Pearl Harbor," a wave of cyber-aggressions that catapult America and the world into a third world war.

I cannot accurately predict the start of World War III on this or any other given year. But I can confidently state that most of the major factors that could lead to a global conflagration are currently present. The war in Ukraine will escalate and become even more internationalized in the next few months; and if the United States and NATO go to war with Russia, other authoritarian regimes may take advantage of the situation to attack America's allies if not America itself.

WORLD HOTSPOTS

Three years into the COVID-19 pandemic and one year into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the world has witnessed substantial geopolitical realignments, most notably a hostile polarization between a block of the United States and its democratic allies in Europe and the Pacific in contraposition to an emboldened authoritarian axis constituted by Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. With the Ukrainian War as background, hostilities between Russia and NATO, China and Taiwan, North and South Korea, and Israel and Iran have intensified, particularly over the past week.

As of today, the War in Ukraine is limited to Russian forces combating Ukrainian troops; but an increasing number of nations have taken sides, directly aiding either country. The United States alone has already funneled over $100 billion in aid to Ukraine, the bulk of it weapons, armored vehicles, ammunition and technical military assistance. It's significant that the lethality of this aid has gradually escalated from Stingers to Javelins to Howitzers to Abrams tanks. Another 42 nations have provided varying degrees of military support, with Cambodians even training Ukrainians in land mine clearance.

Several countries are either considering or calling for deployment of fighter planes. In the skies over Ukraine Turkish-made drones are fighting Iranian-made Russian drones.

A WEEK OF EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENTS, FEBRUARY 18-24, 2023

This week, which marks the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has seen a sharp increase in international tensions.

On Saturday, Feb. 18, in response to scheduled U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises, North Korea fired a Hwasong-15 ICBM that landed between the Korean Peninsula and Japan. Reportedly, that type of missile can reach targets anywhere in the United States. On the next day, the United States deployed supersonic bombers to the region; and on Monday the 20th, North Korea fired two more missiles and artillery shells in Japan's direction.

On the 20th, Biden made a surprise visit to Kyiv, where he met with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, reassuring Ukraine of America's unwavering support and promising another half billion dollars' worth of arms and equipment. The next day, Russia suspended participation in the nuclear arms START treaty, which the United States and Russia had extended for five more years as recently as 2021. And on the anniversary of the start of the invasion of Ukraine, Russian former president Dmitry Medvedev said that his country must "push back borders that threaten our country" specifically mentioning those of NATO member Poland.

On Feb. 22, a drone attacked a military installation in Damascus, where Syrian and Iranian officials had gathered to discuss drone military technology. Leaving a toll of five dead and 15 injured, Syria blamed the attack on Israel, which has neither confirmed nor denied it. On the same day, Bloomberg News reported that Iran had enriched uranium particles to 84% purity, dangerously close to nuclear weapon grade. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met this week with top military officials to discuss strikes against Iranian nuclear installations. Also this week, the United States denounced plans for further military collaboration between Iran and Russia, including the sale of MIGs to Tehran.

On Sunday, Feb. 19, Secretary of State Blinken denounced Chinese plans to provide Russia with lethal military assistance, concerns echoed by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Tuesday when Wang Yi, China's top diplomat, met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow. A summit between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Putin is being planned.

Each of this week's developments bring us closer to the possibility of world war; combined, they increase those chances exponentially.

Luis Martinez-Fernandez served on the College Board's Board of Trustees (2009-2015) and was a member of the team of scholars who produced the framework for the current U.S. History AP course. His book, "When the World Turned Upside Down: Politics, Culture, and the Unimaginable Events of 2019-2022," came out on Feb. 15. To find out more about Luis Martinez-Fernandez and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www. creators.com.